An anonymous Chinese E-cigarette brand expects an earning of ￥1.5 billion in 2019, ￥7.8 Billion in 2020
A document shows that an anonymous Chinese E-cigarette brand ( aka X ) wants to raise tens millions of dollars in the past year, with the goal of becoming the number one e-cigarette brand in China, and finally aiming at the US $30 billion US atomized e-cigarette brand JUUL, replacing it as the world’s number one brand.
According to X brand analysis, the atomization device that combines the taste and convenience of real cigarettes is the inevitable end of the E-cigarette category. This is a very bold judgment. We must know that the current e-cigarette market in China is still pending, and we do not say that the heat-not-burn IQOS sold in Japan. If China is opened for IQOS, I am afraid that this new tobacco will be the future of Chinese tobacco market, many analysts also believe that the new E-cigarette is the best way out for traditional Chinese tobacco.
The reason given by X brand is that atomized device naturally has a wider user group than new tobacco and that health, taste, and fun are the three main reasons why people choose E-cigarette, and E-cigarette can effectively solve health problems.
The X brand has also put forward a very interesting view. They think that E-cigarettes are as similar to smartphones, and they may have a T-shaped structure in the future. That is, the top three may occupy 80% of the market, and the others only account for 20%. %market.
The X brand believes that E-cigarettes have extremely low customer costs and high user stickiness. When talking about why users choose e-cigarettes, X brand believes that healthier, authentic taste of real cigarette and fun are the three most important factors.
In analyzing international competition, X brand listed Japan IQOS and US JUUL. IQOS shipments increased by 389% in 2017, but the growth rate slowed in 2018, while the US JUUL, which is similar to the brand, saw a 653% year-on-year increase in shipments in the US market, and it’s market share increased from 46% to 68%.
This is one of the reasons why they believe that the future of E-cigarettes belongs to those who have a similar product like the JUUL vape oil.
In the analysis of the development stage of the E-cigarette industry, X brand believes that the next few years will be the market popularization and replacement period, and believe that the atomized E-cigarette industry has global capabilities and global market opportunities.
As X brand that wants to compete with the US$38 billion JUU, X brand believes that its products can be rated three stars in terms of taste, taste, and design, while JUUL has only two stars.
In terms of sales comparison, the material listed JUUL’s 2017 sales of $40 million, X brand’s 2018 sales estimate is ￥200 million, the material is shown in the third quarter, so the data is forecast. JUUL expects sales in 2010 to be $3.4 billion.
When talking about the operation team, X brand called the founding team a strong composite team, global, understand the brand, understand the user, understand the operation. There are executives responsible for channel distribution, executives responsible for online and offline self-operated businesses, executives responsible for design, R&D and supply chain, and executives responsible for marketing.
The brand’s capital expenditure is expected to be in the five major aspects of R&D investment, organizational structure and talent upgrading, brand investment, operating capital and supply chain optimization, and tool system construction.
There are also two sets of data in the material that are interesting.
One group has a user retention rate of up to 80%, and the old user consumes 7 to 8 cigarettes per month, and the number of users is nearly 70,000.
Another set of data is the financial forecast. According to the growth situation in the third quarter of 2018, the annual sales revenue is expected to exceed ￥200 million, and the GMV exceeds ￥400 million. The sales revenue forecast for 2019 will soar to 1.5 billion yuan, and the GMV is ￥3.3 billion. The estimated annual sales revenue is ￥7.8 billion, and the GMV is ￥16.7 billion. In 2021, the estimated sales revenue is ￥16.2 billion and the GMV is ￥33.4 billion. X brand expects to achieve a 75-fold increase in users and GMV over the next three years, with a customer unit price forecast of ￥3,000.
This is undoubtedly an explosive industry growth forecast!
In terms of sales, X brand forecast will mainly rely on channel distribution, accounting for more than 70% of transactions. The overall annual net interest rate has increased from 15% to 35% year by year.
The analysis and impact of relevant regulations are not mentioned in the materials. This is very important, especially this year, the E-cigarette industry was also named by CCTV 315, which triggered a small shock in the industry.